Rules of the Road for Outer Space Sustainability: Cyber-conflict’s Transformation of Hybrid War
In 2010, the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee of the UNCOPUOS formed the Working Group on Long Term Sustainability (LTS) of Outer Space Activities, assigning it the task of formulating voluntary non-binding guidelines focusing on sustainable space utilization, space debris and space operations, space weather, and regulatory regimes. At its June 2019 meeting, the UNCOPUOS approved the proposed guidelines and has authorized continuing work of the LTS Working Group. Although the LTS Guidelines are voluntary, their adoption by the UNCOPUOS and consideration by the UNGA’s 4th Committee, are evidence of a growing awareness of their potential contribution to the evolution of space law. My 2024 book chapter in the Oxford Handbook on Space Security explores whether the LTS Guidelines could evolve into customary legal norms as part of customary international law (CIL) and steps that could promote that evolution, given the economic transformation of hybrid war owing to the declining transaction costs of cyber-weaponry and drones.
My paper presented at the 2018 IAC/IISL in Bremen began a long-term research focus on the question, “how is cyber conflict in outer space transforming governance?” My 2024 book chapter in the Oxford Handbook of Space Security argues that cyber conflict is transforming kinetic warfare not only on earth but in space as well, with far-reaching implications for outer space governance.
In short, while sessions of UNCOPUOS have focused on the space sector’s contribution to achieving the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is rather the sustainability of outer space itself that will drive regime change, especially with a view toward the politicization of the space debris conundrum. In this way, the LTS Guidelines function as a “canary in the coal mine” signaling sovereign states’ awareness of the challenges facing outer space exploration and their willingness to adopt voluntary resolutions as nationally binding policies and regulations that may form the basis for customary international law.
